Signals from the EU Parliamentary Election
In early December, I started paying attention to the EU election for a mix of reasons: how technology companies would enhance their election integrity efforts to ensure compliance with the DSA, how AI companies were approaching the election, and the broader political implications we could glean from the results. For all intents and purposes, the EU election was the closest parallel to the upcoming U.S. General election in terms of political trends. My concern wasn’t necessarily around social media platforms allowing bad actors to influence election results, but rather the growing popularity of populism and far-right conservatism. This trend includes a mix of Euroscepticism, anti-immigration sentiments, limiting support for Ukraine, and moving away from the Green Deal. An underlying ‘culture war’ narrative has also slowly taken hold over the past decade. My worry is whether these narratives could lead to political violence and, if they do, who would be targeted.
Regarding disinformation campaigns, EDMO’s daily bulletin proved to be a valuable resource across all 22 languages. Surprisingly, there was a lack of disinformation campaigns about the actual voting process—the procedural aspects. Instead, disinformation narratives focused on the ‘culture war,’ country-level involvement in the Ukraine-Russian war, and confusion around EU-level legislation. The EU Commission excelled in creating a strong, fact-based counter-narrative about the voting process, making it straightforward and easy to follow for every member state. This clarity made it difficult for misinformation about voting procedures to spread quickly. However, such misinformation still traveled widely across X, Meta Platforms, and TikTok. While we await analysis on how AI was used to spread disinformation, the content (both written and media-generated) was not sophisticated enough to significantly impact the election.
What does this mean for upcoming geopolitical flashpoints?
France’s Snap Legislative Election on June 30th and June 7th
UK’s General Election (originally slated for Q4) on July 4th
US Presidential Debate on June 30th
It’s unclear.
EDMO relied on a network of fact-checkers to provide updates on disinformation campaigns, but the database was not robust enough to identify micro-trends. Moderating ‘culture war’ content is incredibly nuanced. While some narratives play across many countries, others are so specific that unless there is a focus on individual member states, they may go unnoticed.
Certain tech companies focused on the EU as one large voting block instead of individual member states. This approach led to an increase in disinformation campaigns in targeted countries (France, Germany, Poland, Italy, Netherlands, Slovakia). These companies might have missed the bigger picture by not focusing on countries that wield significant global influence. Yes, the EU votes as a bloc, but countries like France, Italy, and Germany are part of the G7, with France as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. Meanwhile, Slovenia and Malta are serving a two-year term as non-permanent members, and Denmark and Greece start their two-year non-permanent member terms on January 1st, 2024.
For the UK, there may be a swing to the left, with the Labour Party possibly coming back into power, ending the Tories' decade-long tenure. General malcontent towards globalization and global elites has also contributed to political shifts, reflecting a broader trend. This sentiment ties into the rise of authoritarian challenges in Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China.
Lastly, while the EU Parliamentary election has concluded, four key roles still need to be filled: EU Commission President, European Council President, European Parliament President, and EU Foreign Policy Chief. Although MEPs have been chosen and parties have seen gains or losses, leadership is still very much undecided. The next EU election test will be the disinformation campaigns targeting current President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Council Charles Michel, European Parliament President Roberta Metsola, and EU Foreign-Policy Chief Josep Borrell.
In terms of the lean towards the center-right and far-right, we’re witnessing a difficult time across Western nations with the rise of conservatism in both traditional and flawed democracies. India was able to steady itself by forcing Modi’s hand to form a coalition government after the BJP didn’t secure enough seats to control the legislature. The snap National Assembly election in France, in reaction to the EU election results, will truly test whether the public supports what the National Rally (a far-right political group) is selling. This could either be a smart play for President Macron’s Renaissance party or result in him becoming a lame-duck president as his term ends in 2027. Watching this announcement in real time on F24 and listening to commentators' shocked reactions was surreal. Therefore, I am closely watching the first round of French voting (June 30th), coinciding with the first U.S. debate, to forecast the future of democracy and identify potential disinformation campaign vulnerabilities in the fall.
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Links for additional reading
Elections in the Digital Age: Navigating Technology, Policy and Global Impact (https://www.mereprotest.co/insights/globalelections)
Global Elections Playbook: AI Edition (https://integrityinstitute.org/blog/global-elections-playbook-ai-edition)
We Worked on Election Integrity At Meta. The EU - And All Democracies - Need to Fix the Feed Before It’s Too late (https://www.techpolicy.press/we-worked-on-election-integrity-at-meta-the-eu-and-all-democracies-need-to-fix-the-feed-before-its-too-late/)
EU Parliamentary Elections Confirm Sharp Right Turn/Snap Elections Called in France 30th June and 7th July (https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/eu-parliamentary-elections-confirm-sharp-right-turnsnap-tina-fordham-snjgf/)
EU Election Results - Europe Swings to the Right - EU Confidential from POLITICO https://shows.acast.com/61a657ec79ae560013721d13/66663ae1ba6e1700125767e7
EDMO EU Elections Disinfo Bulletin (https://edmo.eu/thematic-areas/european-elections/eu-elections-disinfo-bulletin/#issue46)